Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution Patterns of Actinidia arguta under Different Climate Scenarios

Actinidia arguta (Siebold and Zucc.) Planch.ex Miq, called “hardy kiwifruit”, “baby kiwi” or “kiwi berry”, has a unique taste, is rich in nutrients high economic value broad market prospects. Active research on the potential geographic distribution of A. China aims to provide reference basis for its resource investigation, conservation, development utilization introduction cultivation. In this study, Maxent model was used combine climatic factors, soil factors geographical (elevation, slope aspect) predict current future (2041–2060 2081–2100) analyze impact climate change it. The results showed that suitable range 23–43 N 100–125 E, with total area about 3.4451 × 106 km2. highly mainly concentrated middle low mountain areas south Shaanxi, east Sichuan, west Guizhou Yunnan, presenting circular distribution. Jackknife test calculate main environmental affecting arguta. first four were annual mean temperature (bio_1), precipitation warmest quarter (bio_18), elevation (ELE) (bio_10), which provided contribution up 81.7%. Under scenarios three representative concentrations (SSP1_2.6, SSP2_4.5 SSP5_8.5) future, moderate habitat decreased, while increased. migration direction centroid moved southwest scenario period.